Who will be the next President of the United States? Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the next Super Bowl?
These are the kinds of questions that have pushed prediction markets to the top of news agendas, driven the valuations of Kalshi and Polymarket to a combined $13 billion, and made the US gaming and sports betting industry sit up and take notice.
In short, prediction markets are dominating the conversation in the US right now. Sitting in an awkward grey area between gambling and financial investment, they are hailed by some as a financial goldmine and dismissed by others as risk-driven gambling.
Their controversial nature makes them a headline topic throughout our SBC Summit Americas conference agenda.
In this article, we’ll explore what prediction markets are, the regulatory grey area they operate in, and how delegates can learn more about them at SBC Summit Americas 2026.
What Are Prediction Markets?
A prediction market, at its simplest, is a bet on whether something will or won’t happen.
Here’s how they work:
- Users buy shares, priced between $0 and $1, that represent the perceived likelihood of an outcome.
- Each participant can purchase either a ‘Yes’ share or a ‘No’ share, depending on whether they believe the event will occur.
- The price of each share fluctuates as more people buy or sell, reflecting the changing consensus about the probability of the event.
- Once the outcome is known, winning shares pay out $1, while losing shares become worthless.
For example, let’s take the 2024 US presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which marked the moment prediction markets broke into the mainstream.
On platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, users could buy shares predicting whether Trump would win the election. If you believed Trump would take the White House, you would purchase “Yes” shares in that outcome; if you thought Harris would win, you’d buy “No” shares.
These prices would swing according to public opinion. If more people thought Trump would win, his share might rise to $0.63; if he performed badly in a debate, it might fall.
On the completion of the election, these shares would pay out at $1 each. So if you bought $10 worth of Trump shares at 63 cents, you’d receive about $15.87 if he won. If you bought Kamala stocks, you would lose your stake.
Kind of like a bet, right? Well, not exactly.
Why Prediction Markets are Controversial
Prediction markets didn’t begin as gambling products. Economists first used them to forecast elections, policy decisions, and global events, based on a simple idea: when money’s at stake, people reveal what they really think. That data often proved more accurate than polls or pundits.
The 2024 presidential election marked their entry into the mainstream. News outlets such as CNN, NBC, and Fox News began using them to show what people really thought about the race. Opinion polls were one thing, but people putting their money where their mouth was showed what they genuinely believed.
The effect was twofold. Prediction markets proved far more accurate than opinion polls, with Trump leading the betting for much of the race. The platforms offering these markets also gained widespread publicity, making them household names.
From there, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket expanded their offerings. Prediction markets moved beyond politics — you could buy shares on who would win the NBA Playoffs, the Super Bowl, or other major sporting events.
Soon, these platforms became nearly indistinguishable from sportsbooks. The problem? Sportsbooks are tightly regulated on a state-by-state basis, while prediction markets fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to their origins as financial products.
This essentially sees prediction markets operating in a grey area. Being federally regulated, they can be offered as financial products in states that prohibit sports betting, such as California, Texas, and Georgia.
This status is controversial and subject to ongoing legal challenges. While prediction markets are one of the hottest topics in gaming right now, their long-term legality remains uncertain.
Why Prediction Markets Matter for the Gaming Industry
Once prediction markets moved past political and economic events and into sports, they began competing for market share with existing sportsbook operators in the US.
This has put US operators at a strategic crossroads — whether to enter the space and challenge platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, or to assume that regulatory intervention will ultimately eliminate their gray-market competition.
Market leaders DraftKings and FanDuel have both decided to take the gamble and begin offering prediction markets with the launch of DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Markets. These products remain in development, and it is not yet clear whether they will include sports-related markets.
With the amount wagered reaching nearly $30 billion this year alone, prediction markets offer a fascinating opportunity for gaming brands in the US. At SBC Summit Americas, attendees will explore how these platforms could reshape the boundary between finance and betting, and what their rise means for the future of the industry.
Prediction Markets at SBC Summit Americas
At SBC Summit Americas, we’ve ensured to weave discussion on prediction markets throughout this year’s agenda. Across multiple panels, industry leaders, regulators, and tribal representatives will explore the regulatory challenges and commercial potential of this fast-evolving sector.
From examining how prediction markets could redefine the boundaries of US gambling law to exploring whether operators should enter this grey area at all, our sessions will give delegates the insight they need to navigate one of the biggest questions shaping the future of betting in the US.
Here’s a look at some of the panels discussing prediction markets on our agenda:
- The Current State of Prediction Markets in the US,
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Leaders Stage | 11:20 am – 12:00 pm
CEOs from across the gaming industry will examine the rapid rise of prediction markets in the US, exploring what has fuelled their success, what’s next for this evolving space, and how delegates can use these insights to navigate upcoming shifts in regulation and policy.
- From Regulation to Representation: Giving Tribes a Voice in the Future of US Gaming
Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Leaders Stage | 16:50 – 17:30
This panel examines how prediction markets are reshaping the future of Tribal Gaming in the US. Experts will assess how tribal gaming can respond and engage with the competition posed by prediction markets, offering strategies for protecting revenue, maintaining sovereignty, and adapting to this new landscape.
- Prediction markets: The Future of the States?
Thursday, June 11, 2026 | North America Stage | 12:00 – 12:40
This session will explore how prediction markets are blurring the line between gambling and financial products in the US. Experts will examine what the rise of prediction markets could mean for the country’s existing state-by-state gambling model, and whether their popularity will push the US towards a more unified national approach to regulation.
- California: On the verge of a Historic Year
Thursday, June 11, 2026 | North America Stage | 13:40 – 14:20
California has traditionally responded strongly to any form of ‘alternative betting’, shutting down Daily Fantasy Sports in the state last summer. This panel will debate whether prediction markets will draw the same response, while also asking whether it’s time for California to move towards a regulated market in light of clear player demand.
Final Thoughts
Prediction markets are dominating the conversation in US gaming right now. Kalshi and Polymarket currently lead the space thanks to their first-mover advantage, but with major operators like FanDuel and DraftKings now entering the arena, the stakes have never been higher.
Understanding how these platforms operate, how they’re regulated, and where they’re headed is essential for anyone navigating the future of the industry in the country.
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