Pedro Miguel Garcia, Country Manager for Portugal at BacanaPlay, spoke to iGaming Expert as he identified where the market has room for growth and why its evolution is set to continue.
Garcia is speaking at the SBC Summit in Lisbon on the panel titled ‘Portugal’s Gambling Evolution: Growth, Pressure and New Opportunities’.
Where do you see the biggest growth opportunity in Portugal’s gambling market over the next three to five years?
I believe the Portuguese market still has significant room for growth, despite already being a relatively mature regulated market.
Over the past few years, we have seen consistent growth in GGR, alongside an increasingly competitive landscape as new operators continue to enter the market. This shows that Portugal remains attractive, even with a relatively high tax burden, particularly on sports betting.
Looking ahead three to five years, however, I don’t think growth will come simply from adding more operators. The biggest opportunity will come from product evolution and innovation.
Portugal is still a relatively restrictive market when it comes to certain products and features that are already established in other regulated European markets. If the regulatory framework continues to evolve and allows products such as Live Casino, as well as greater innovation within existing verticals, that could unlock a new phase of growth.
So, for me, the opportunity is less about expanding the number of players in the market and more about expanding what licensed operators are able to offer them — while maintaining strong standards around player protection and responsible gambling.
Which verticals are currently growing fastest in Portugal, and where do you expect the next major shift in player demand? Are there any specific products that have success in the Portuguese market?
Casino has been the main driver of growth in the Portuguese market over the past few years, which is not particularly surprising, as this is a trend we tend to see in more mature regulated markets.
Today, online casino represents approximately 63% of total online GGR in Portugal, compared with around 37% for sports betting, which clearly demonstrates how important the vertical has become.
At the same time, we are seeing the market gradually evolve through the introduction of new products and game formats. Crash games are a good example. They have gained a presence in Portugal, although they have not reached the same level of popularity or cultural relevance that we see in markets such as Brazil.
Looking ahead, I believe player demand will increasingly move towards products that offer a more engaging, interactive and entertainment-led experience. Players are not necessarily looking only for new games; they are looking for new ways to experience gaming.
This is where I see significant potential for products such as Live Casino. It combines the traditional casino experience with interaction, entertainment and a stronger sense of immersion — and I believe that could resonate particularly well with Portuguese players if and when the regulatory framework allows it.
How challenging is it for balance in the Portuguese market that taxation rates are so different between sports betting and casino?
Different taxation models across verticals are not unusual in regulated gambling markets. The particular challenge in Portugal is that the tax base itself is different: sports betting is taxed on turnover, while online casino is taxed on GGR.
That creates a very different economic dynamic between the two verticals, particularly when it comes to margins, promotional investment and bonus strategies. Operators need to be much more careful about how they manage the economics of sportsbook acquisition and retention.
However, this is not a new challenge. It has been part of the Portuguese regulatory framework since the market opened, and operators have learned how to build their strategies around it.
This is also where cross-sell becomes particularly important. Sportsbook and casino should not necessarily be looked at as two completely separate businesses. A significant proportion of Portuguese players engage with both verticals, and the ability to create a strong customer journey between sportsbook and casino can have a major impact on the overall value and profitability of a player.
So, while the different taxation models certainly create complexity, I would say the real challenge — and opportunity — is building a balanced ecosystem where the two verticals complement each other.
What have you made of the increase in self-exclusion rates always – do they indicate an increase in problematic behaviour, or can it be attributed to a greater improvement of the services available?
I don’t think we can automatically interpret an increase in self-exclusion rates as evidence of an equivalent increase in problematic gambling behaviour. Self-exclusion figures alone don’t necessarily tell us why a player has decided to use that tool.
Part of the increase may also reflect greater awareness and accessibility of Responsible Gambling tools. Over the years, licensed operators in Portugal have become much more proactive in communicating these tools, while the regulator has also continued to strengthen the framework and make self-exclusion more accessible to players.
In that sense, an increase in the use of these tools can also be seen as evidence that players are becoming more aware of the mechanisms available to help them manage their gambling behaviour.
At the same time, self-exclusion figures are an important indicator that needs to be monitored and understood alongside other behavioural data. The objective should be to understand what is driving those decisions and identify potential problematic behaviour as early as possible.
Ultimately, player protection has to remain one of the foundations of a healthy and sustainable regulated market. Growth and Responsible Gambling should not be seen as competing objectives. In the long term, one depends on the other.
How can operators balance commercial growth with increasingly stringent player protection and responsible gambling requirements?
I think this is something operators need to embrace as a natural part of operating in a regulated market. As I mentioned earlier, sustainable commercial growth is only possible if we have a healthy market, with informed players who understand the product, understand their limits and have the tools they need to remain in control.
As operators, we have a responsibility not only to comply with regulation, but also to educate players and make Responsible Gambling an integral part of the customer experience.
The challenge comes when regulation becomes disproportionate or creates unintended consequences. If the regulated market becomes too restrictive or significantly less attractive to players, there is a real risk that some of them migrate towards unlicensed operators. Those operators do not operate under the same player protection standards, do not contribute to the regulated ecosystem in the same way, and may be able to offer promotions or incentives that licensed operators cannot.
That is why we need to think beyond the immediate impact of individual restrictions. We need a balanced and sustainable regulatory framework that protects players while ensuring that the regulated market remains competitive and attractive.
And this cannot be the responsibility of operators alone. Operators, regulators, government and industry associations need to work together — not only on Responsible Gambling, but also on education and on effective action against illegal operators.
Ultimately, the strongest player protection is achieved when players choose to remain within the regulated market. That should be our common objective.
What unique challenges are present in the Portuguese market compared to others in Europe?
I wouldn’t necessarily say that Portugal has one unique challenge that makes it fundamentally more difficult than other European markets. Every regulated market has its own particularities, and Portugal is no different.
There are, of course, specific regulatory requirements that operators need to adapt to. Cash Out is a good example. The way the product needs to operate in Portugal is different from what we see in many other European markets. But I wouldn’t necessarily describe that as a challenge — it is simply part of understanding the regulatory framework and building the best possible product within it.
For me, the important thing is not to look at Portugal in isolation. We should constantly look at more mature markets, understand how player behaviour and product trends are evolving, learn from what works and what doesn’t, and bring those best practices into Portugal whenever the regulatory framework allows it.
At the same time, we shouldn’t assume that something that works in another European market will automatically work in Portugal. Local knowledge remains extremely important.
So I see Portugal less as a uniquely challenging market and more as a market with its own characteristics. The opportunity for operators is to understand those characteristics and adapt accordingly.
Portugal’s Minister of Economy has branded the country’s black market a ‘plague’. How can stakeholders foster the growth of the regulated sector while countering the black market?
I share the concern behind those words. In a regulated market, the black market is one of the biggest threats we face — not only from a commercial perspective, but, more importantly, from a player protection perspective.
Illegal operators do not follow the same rules as licensed operators. They are not subject to the same Responsible Gambling requirements, advertising standards, regulatory oversight or taxation. That creates an uneven playing field, but it also creates a significant risk for consumers.
This is why I don’t believe the answer is simply to impose more and more restrictions on the regulated sector, or to completely remove its ability to advertise. Gambling demand does not disappear because regulated brands become less visible. The risk is that we make it more difficult for consumers to distinguish between licensed and unlicensed operators.
Advertising obviously needs to be responsible, proportionate and properly regulated. But it can also play an important role in channelisation by giving visibility to brands that operate within the rules.
At the same time, we need to invest much more in player education. Players should understand how to identify a licensed operator, why playing within the regulated market matters, and what protections they lose when they choose an illegal platform.
And enforcement is equally important. Operators, regulators, government, payment providers, media platforms and industry associations all have a role to play in making it progressively more difficult for illegal operators to reach Portuguese consumers.
Ultimately, we need to make the regulated market the safest and most attractive place to play. Protecting players and fighting the black market are not two separate objectives — they are fundamentally the same objective.
What can Portugal do to continue to be an attractive market across a competitive European landscape, especially as various operators examine their multi-market strategies?
I think operators increasingly look at markets not only in terms of size, but also in terms of long-term sustainability and the ability to build a healthy business.
Portugal may not be one of the largest European markets, but it has several important advantages. It is an established regulated market, it has continued to grow, and there is still significant potential for further product development.
To remain attractive, I think regulatory stability and predictability are extremely important. Operators making multi-market investment decisions need to understand not only what the rules are today, but also have confidence in the direction in which the market is moving.
At the same time, Portugal needs to continue allowing the regulated market to innovate. As player expectations evolve, operators need to be able to offer competitive products and experiences. If the gap between what is available in the regulated market and what players can find elsewhere becomes too large, that creates challenges both commercially and in terms of channelisation.
Finally, the regulated sector needs to remain economically sustainable. This doesn’t simply mean lower taxation or fewer regulations. It means finding the right balance between taxation, player protection, product innovation and competitiveness.
Ultimately, when international operators decide where to invest, capital will naturally move towards markets where they see regulatory certainty, sustainable growth and the ability to innovate. Portugal has many of those foundations already — the opportunity is to continue building on them.
How crucial do you believe the SBC Summit is, and what are you hoping to learn from the event?
For me, the SBC Summit has become one of the most important events in the industry globally. It brings together the leading operators, providers and stakeholders, but at the same time it remains a very practical and business-focused event where you can have meaningful meetings and conversations.
It is also one of the best opportunities to understand where the industry is heading. Things move incredibly quickly in our sector, whether we are talking about product, technology, player behaviour, Responsible Gambling or regulation, so being exposed to different markets, ideas and solutions is extremely valuable.
Personally, I am always looking for new ideas that we can bring back to our markets — new products, new tools, new technologies or simply different ways of approaching a problem.
And, of course, there is also the human side. This is a relationship-driven industry, and events like SBC give us the opportunity to spend time with partners, peers and people facing many of the same challenges that we are.
For me, it has become an event I simply don’t want to miss. I always leave with new ideas, new conversations and usually a much longer to-do list than the one I arrived with!
